Crassous, Renaud (2008) Modelling long-run scenarios in a second-best world : application to climate policies. PhD thesis Sciences Economiques, CIRED - ENGREF, AgroParistech 2008AGPT0073 p.345.
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Alternative Locations: http://www.imaclim.centre-cired.fr/spip.php?rubrique56
Abstract
This PhD thesis adresses the issue of the necessary transition toward a sustainable energy system and a stabilized climate regime. It starts from the observation of a persistent gap between lessons from both the theoretical economic literature and the quantitative assessments of climate policies and observed decision mechanisms in the real world. In order to understand this gap, the state of the art of existing technical and economic modelling tools in the field of energy and climate is critically analyzed, which leads to a new set of specifications for a new model able to solve the misunderstandings about climate policy. This is applied to the development of the innovative world model Imaclim-R, which includes several suboptimal rules of decision and market behaviours, in order to be more closely representative of our second best world. Numerical simulations lead to show the impact of those suboptimalities on climate policies, especially on the carbon value profile and on the risks of high transition costs on any greenhouse gases stabilization pathway. Eventually, some policy tools are proposed and assessed to secure the transition, on both the environmental and the economic sides, sketching a new research agenda for policy assessment.
| Item Type: | PhD Thesis (PhD) |
|---|---|
| PhD Supervisor: | Hourcade, Jean-Charles |
| Date: | 21 November 2008 |
| Board of examiners: | Millier, Claude and Giraud, Pierre-Noël and Lebre La Rovere, Emilio and Bureau, Dominique |
| Ecole Doctorale: | ED 435 AGRICULTURE, ALIMENTATION, BIOLOGIE, ENVIRONNEMENTS ET SANTE |
| Discipline: | Sciences Economiques |
| Collection (Fonds): | AgroParisTech ENGREF AgroParistech |
| Institution: | AgroParistech |
| Department: | CIRED - ENGREF |
| Subjects: | 9. Sciences of Economy, Management and Society |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | énergie, Climat, Modélisation |
| ID Code: | 4809 |
| Deposited By: | Renaud Crassous |
| Deposited On: | 07 April 2009 |
References
Crassous, R., 2008, "Modéliser le long terme dans un monde de second rang : application aux politiques climatiques", Thèse de Doctorat en Sciences Economiques, sous la direction de Jean-Charles Hourcade, AgroParisTech, Paris, 21 novembre 2008.
Table of content
Introduction generale
chapitre 1 : la modelisation de long terme : etat de l’art et taxinomie des outils disponibles
chapitre 2 : modeles en concurrence : representations alternatives du monde reel ou insuffisances theoriques ?
chapitre 3 : imaclim-r : une architecture de simulation pour l’Évaluation de la durabilite des trajectoires
chapitre 4 : imaclim-r : modules technico-economiques sectoriels hybrides dans un cadre d’equilibre general
chapitre 5 : scenario « laisser-faire » : les determinants d’un futur tres intensif en carbone
chapitre 6 : vers une reevaluation du cout des politiques de reduction des emissions
chapitre 7 : futur regime de coordination des efforts : quel compromis institutionnel entre vulgate economique et asperites du monde reel ?
conclusion generale
bibliographie generale
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