Rivière, Olivier (2007) Predictability of atmospheric flow at synoptic scales :influence of moisture and non-linear processes. PhD thesis, Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique, ENPC p.217.
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Abstract
This work aims at explaining the importance of moisture and nonlinear processes for the predictability of baroclinic systems. In order to study nonlinear growth of errors, the Nonlinear Singular Vectors technique (NLSV) is introduced: these are the most rapidly amplifying perturbations on the lead time of the forecast.
The first part of this work studies the physical properties of NLSV s in atmospheric models with different levels of realism. The importance of nonlinear interactions between the mean flow and the perturbation is highlighted.
Then the impact of precipitation on the structure and amplification of optimal perturbations is studied in a GCM.
ln the last section, a novel nonlinear method for investigating the sensitivity of error growth to the moisture of the basic state is introduced and shows a negative impact of moisture on predictability .
| Item Type: | PhD Thesis (PhD) |
|---|---|
| PhD Supervisor: | Talagrand, Olivier and Lapeyre, Guillaume |
| Date: | 19 December 2007 |
| Board of examiners: | Rabier, Florence and Wernli, Heini and Doerenbecher, Alexis and Ern, Alexandre and Klein, Patrice and Talagrand, Olivier and Lapeyre, Guillaume |
| Collection (Fonds): | Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) |
| Institution: | ENPC |
| Department: | Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique |
| Subjects: | 8. Earth Sciences and Environmental Engineering |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Instabilité barocline, Prévisibilité, Vecteurs singuliers, Humidité, Dépressions atmosphériques |
| ID Code: | 4043 |
| Deposited By: | Anna Egea |
| Deposited On: | 30 January 2009 |
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