Zhadanovskaya, Ekaterina (2007) Modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics of the european corn borer in the presence of transgenic maize. PhD thesis Ecologie des populations et comunautés, USC (INRA) 1285 Ecologie des populations et communautés, AgroParistech 2007AGPT0013 p.158.

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References

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Table of content

Introduction - 7

Chapter 1 General review of modelling methods applied to the problem of

resistance evolution to transgenic insecticidal crops in pest population - 21

1.1 Modelling population genetics - 21

1.1.1 Complex simulation models - 22

1.1.2 Fisher-Haldane-Wright model - 23

1.1.3 Demo-genetic models - 28

1.2 Modelling spatial population dynamics - 33

1.2.1 Patch models - 33

1.2.2 Cellular automata - 35

1.2.3 Reaction-diffusion models - 36

Thesis problems - 40

Chapter 2 Demo-genetic model of the development of resistance to

transgenic maize in European corn borer population - 41

2.1 The model - 41

2.1.1 Population genetics - 41

2.1.2 Modelling the demo-genetic dynamics of the population - 41

2.1.3 Modelling the “high dose-refuge” strategy - 43

2.1.4 Ecological simplifications in the demo-genetic model - 45

2.1.5 Estimation of demographic model parameters for the European corn

borer - 47

2.2 Qualitative analysis of the demo-genetic model - 49

2.2.1 Homogeneous pest habitat - 49

2.2.2 Heterogeneous pest habitat - 64

2.3 Simulation results - 92

2.3.1 Stability analysis of the homogeneous and heterogeneous spatial states

of the model - 93

5

2.3.2 Analysis of the efficiency of the “high dose-refuge” strategy for 1D and

2D habitats - 96

2.3.3 Calculation of profit when using the “high dose-refuge” strategy for 1D

habitat - 106

Discussion - 109

Chapter 3 Bi-trophic demo-genetic models - 115

3.1 Model “pest – parasitoid” - 115

3.1.1 The model - 115

3.1.2 Estimation of demographic model parameters for the larval parasitoid

Macrocentrus grandii - 117

3.1.3 Results of numerical simulations - 119

3.2 Model “crop – pest” - 122

3.2.1 The model - 122

3.2.2 Estimation of demographic model parameters for the maize - 124

3.2.3 Results of numerical simulations - 125

Discussion - 126

Conclusions - 128

Appendix - 129

References - 143

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